Cultural Maturity

Cultural maturity provides a picture of how a trend resonates within culture and evolves over time. It measures the level of consensus and stability in the meanings associated with a trend.

Cultural Maturity

When we started studying culture at scale in 2017, we considered using the diffusion of innovation adoption life cycle to track the emergence of new ideas and trends. However, we quickly realized that this model, while useful for measuring product adoption, was inadequate for studying culture.

To address this gap, we developed the Maturity Curve.

[graphic depiction of the maturity curve]

To be clear: the maturity curve is not a measure of how many people are adopting a product.

Instead, it measures how consistently the meanings surrounding an idea are understood in culture. An idea can be highly mature in culture (e.g., well understood by most people) before mass adoption occurs, and vice versa.

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For example, let’s take a look at AI, circa 2023. Obviously, most people had not yet adopted AI into their lives. However, the shared meanings associated with AI were very mature—everyone had clear expectations about what AI means, what it would do, and what it might look like (from movies, books, and other features of popular culture).

How Maturity is Measured

A topic becomes mature when the meanings people associate with it become more consistent. Conversely, a topic remains immature when those meanings are still diverse or shifting.

To determine a topic's maturity, Lux Consumer Insights examines:

How many connections a search term has to other topics.
Whether those surrounding topics are themselves well-established.
How spread out or diverse the meanings are in a given culture.
The rate at which meanings are converging into shared, stable definitions.

The result is a placement on the Maturity Curve, showing both where a topic currently stands and where it is likely to move in the future.

The Four Stages of the Maturity Curve

Topics progress through four key stages, each indicating the level of cultural consensus:

New Ideas

At this stage, an idea is still emerging.
Meanings are fragmented, and people do not yet agree on its role in their lives.
Example: A new wellness trend that is gaining niche traction but lacks broad consumer understanding, such as postbiotics in 2023-2024.

The conversation about postbiotics in the context of wellness show very little agreement among consumers.

Early Consensus

Different interpretations of the idea are still competing, but a few dominant meanings are emerging.
As dominant meanings emerge, the trajectory of the trend becomes clearer.
Example: Plant-based diets shifting from a niche concern (veganism) to a broader discussion around sustainability and health in 2023-2024.

Consumer conversations about plant-based eating have moved to the early consensus as it moves away from an ethical commitment to animals and toward a health-conscious culture.

Mainstream Acceptance (Zone of Innovation)

A single dominant meaning (or a small number of variations) is now clear, making it predictable how consumers will interpret new solutions within this space.
This stage is the ideal time for innovation, as consumers are engaged but open to new solutions.
At this stage, innovation thrives because consumers understand the concept but are still defining their expectations for how it should be delivered. Businesses that introduce new formats, use cases, or applications can shape consumer perceptions before the market becomes rigid.
Example: Oat milk entering coffee shops and becoming a standard dairy alternative.

Oat milk within the context of coffee shops is now a mainstream idea, and expected to continue growing into 2026.

Established Ideas

The topic is fully defined in culture, making new product innovation difficult.
However, brand differentiation, marketing strategies, and business model changes still offer opportunities.
Additionally, current pain points can offer brand opportunities for differentiation in a crowded market.
Example: Coffee—brands now compete on branding, experience, and convenience, rather than reinventing the product itself.

Coffee itself is extremely mature: consumers have very fixed expectations, thoughts, preferences, occasions, pain points, and more - they understand coffee, and (almost) everyone is on the same page about its positive and negative qualities.

How to Use the Maturity Curve

Understanding where a topic sits on the Maturity Curve helps determine timing and strategy for innovation:

If a topic is in New Ideas or Early Consensus → Focus on education and thought leadership to help shape emerging consumer perceptions.
If a topic is in the Zone of Innovation → This is the ideal window for launching new solutions, as consumers are engaged but expectations are still flexible.
If a topic is in Established Ideas → Compete through branding, marketing, and business model adjustments rather than new product development.

By benchmarking over 1000 trends and topics, we’ve determined that innovations launched at 33% maturity or higher achieve mainstream success faster. Those launched too early face slower adoption and greater risk of disruption, while those launched too late must compete primarily on price, branding, or positioning.

Why 33% Maturity Matters

Our research shows that innovations launched at 33% maturity or higher reach mainstream success faster. At this threshold, the topic has enough cultural recognition for consumers to engage, but is still flexible enough for new solutions to influence expectations.