Lux’s Consumer Insights Tool forecasts the maturity and population growth of trends by analyzing how cultural meanings evolve over time.
Lux’s process involves two key steps:
- The anthropologist (human or virtual) analyzes the language context related to a trend through 7 years of historical ethnographic research.
- The predictive anthropology architecture tracks how this context has evolved over the last year.
By examining whether the meaning of a trend is converging (indicating consensus), staying static, or diverging (suggesting volatility), we can predict how the topic will evolve.
The predictive anthropology architecture tracks new topics entering the conversation and existing topics leaving it, determining whether the cultural meaning around a trend is stabilizing.
- If the trend is consistently converging, we predict its future trajectory.
- If meanings remain unstable, no prediction is made due to volatility.
Lux identifies volatility by measuring month-over-month semantic distance changes. If a topic’s meaning fluctuates unpredictably without stabilizing, predictions are deemed unreliable and are withheld.
Example of a Volatile Trend That Couldn’t Be Predicted
A search for “lab-grown meat” in 2018 might have been flagged as highly volatile because consumer discussions ranged from environmental sustainability to ethical concerns to outright rejection—with no dominant meaning emerging.
In contrast, by 2023, as sustainability narratives solidified, a prediction could now be made.
How Accurate Are Lux’s Predictions?
The Anthropological Explanation
Language itself is a predictor. By analyzing the structure of consumer language, we can see:
- What language currently dominates and shapes perception
- What language is gradually gaining traction and moving toward consensus
This motion signals momentum and transformation in culture.
The Mathematical Explanation
In 1000+ benchmarking searches, Lux predictions were 80.4% accurate within a 4.8% margin of error.
Our models involve seven years of our team’s cultural observations and one year of deep conversational data involving over 270M data points to unearth patterns of change and project them forward, predicting future shifts within a 1-5+ year time frame.
- Predictions cannot account for sudden cultural events (e.g., scandals).
- Despite this, Lux predictions exceed an 80% accuracy rate, making them highly reliable for decision-making.
Clients use our predictions to quantify and qualify investments, leading to $5B+ in new revenue and 100+ successful product launches.
How Lux Determines Prediction Time Frames
How Far into the Future Can Lux Predict?
Lux forecasts typically fall within 1-5+ years, based on the pace & velocity of cultural change. Basically:
- Faster cultural shifts → Shorter time frame (1-2 years).
- Slower cultural shifts → Longer time frame (3-5+ years).
A 1-2 year prediction indicates rapidly solidifying ideas and a high accuracy confidence.
A 3-4 year prediction suggests gradual adoption and slower consensus formation.
Why Does Lux Predict Only 1-5 Years Into the Future?
Predictions are capped at 5+ years because cultural shifts become exponentially harder to forecast beyond this window.
Unlike economic models that can project trends based on past cycles, cultural change is nonlinear—new social, technological, or political forces may emerge unexpectedly.
As a result, beyond 5 years, predictive accuracy falls below Lux’s 80.4% benchmark, making long-term forecasts unreliable.