Volatility occurs when a trend or topic does not stabilize around a clear set of meanings, making it unpredictable.
Our Predictive Anthropology platform identifies volatile topics by tracking whether meanings:
✅ Consistently converge → Predictable & growing more mature
❌ Keep diversifying or shifting unpredictably → Volatile & unpredictable
If a trend's meanings constantly change, contradict, or fail to establish a dominant narrative, it becomes difficult for consumers to understand its role.
As a result, Lux may not be able to run a prediction for highly volatile topics.
How Lux Identifies Volatility
There are two types of volatility that Lux detects:
1. High Volatility (No Prediction Possible)
- The topic universe continues to diversify in a random pattern with no sign of stabilization.
- Because no clear trajectory is forming, Lux does not run a prediction (it does not meet quality standards).
- Instead, the system reports that the topic is highly volatile and cannot be predicted.
- Volatility represents an opportunity to shape the narrative and establish meaning, rather than catch the wave of a trend.
2. Stabilizing Volatility (Prediction Possible, But Uncertain)
- The topic universe has recently begun to stabilize, but its past volatility makes future predictions less certain.
- In such cases, a prediction is generated, but with a warning about the topic’s historical instability.
- Predictions for stabilizing volatility often default to longer time frames (4-5 years) to account for lingering uncertainty.
- If the topic fails to maintain its trajectory toward convergence, it can return to high volatility, making future predictions impossible.
Example: A Volatile Trend Becoming Predictable
A search for “lab-grown meat” in 2018 might have been flagged as highly volatile because consumer discussions ranged from:
- Environmental sustainability
- Ethical concerns
- Rejection as “unnatural”
- Excitement about food innovation
Since no dominant meaning had emerged, no prediction could be made.
However, by 2023, as sustainability narratives solidified, the topic likely became predictable enough to forecast its future trajectory.
🔹 A highly volatile topic today may become predictable in the future if dominant meanings stabilize.
🔹 Lux continually reassesses topics, and if a previously unpredictable trend reaches cultural consensus, predictions may become possible.
How Volatility Affects Predictions
When Does Volatility Prevent a Prediction?
- If volatility remains extremely high, no prediction is made.
- Lux measures semantic distance changes over time—if the language surrounding a trend does not stabilize, a prediction is deemed unreliable and is withheld.
When Does a Volatile Topic Sometimes Still Receive a Prediction?
- If a topic is somewhat volatile but shows early signs of stabilizing, Lux may provide a 4-5 year forecast to account for lingering uncertainty.
- The consumer insights tool may still flag the prediction with a cautionary note.