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Why do the predictions anticipate different time frames?

Our growth predictions provide anticipated growth rates and timelines, with timelines specified as occurring within 1-5+ years.

Two key factors contribute to the variations in time frames between different cultures.

A growth rate anticipated to occur within the next 2-3 years.

Simulated Scenarios

Firstly, our predictions result from regression analysis, wherein we simulate multiple future development scenarios for the culture, across different time frames.

We then present the scenario that returned the highest predicted accuracy.

It’s worth noting that we strive for a minimum accuracy rate of 80.4% on our predictions!

Pace of Change & Velocity of Change

Secondly, the pace of cultural change influences the expected time frame for growth.

In mathematical terms, a higher velocity of change corresponds to a more immediate predicted time frame.

This culture anticipates the shortest time frame we report: 1-2 years. This is due to both of the above factors: a high velocity of change and a higher level of accuracy.

And a slower velocity of change leads to a more gradual predicted time frame.

This culture anticipates a slower rate of change at 4-5 years,. This is again due to both of the above factors: a lower velocity of change and the 4-5 year simulation returning the highest level of accuracy.

In cultural terms, a high velocity of change indicates rapid solidification of ideas within the culture, while a low velocity of change suggests a slower spread of these ideas and meanings.