The predicted maturity and population presented by our Predictive Anthropology Platform allows you to understand the future of a particular topic or trend.
Our forecasting method revolves around analyzing the language context surrounding a topic or trend. The core question we aim to answer is whether there's a consistent shift in language over time.
Put simply, we're exploring whether the context gradually changes from diverse terms to more similar ones. The ultimate goal is to assess if the range of language used in the topic is becoming less diverse over time and if this transformation follows a consistent pattern.
To accomplish this, our algorithm analyzes the evolution of topics within the topic universe.
It observes new topics entering the contextual universe and existing topics leaving it.
The algorithm's objective is to ascertain whether, over time, the topics entering the universe contribute to a reduction in the overall diversity of the culture. If this ongoing consolidation of meaning is consistent, it signals that the topic or trend is maturing.
However, if a consistent reduction is not observed, it implies there is likely volatility within the context. In such cases, we do not run a prediction.
Timeframe
We conduct our analysis by leveraging four years of historical contextual data on a topic/trend. This involves running thousands of regressions on the movement of thousands of topics over time.
Through this comprehensive approach, we can track the trajectory of topics and assess whether they are consistently converging in semantic distance over time. Such convergence signifies a reduction in diversity and a reliable evolution of the trend.
Predicted Time Frame
Our growth predictions provide anticipated growth rates and timelines to clients, with timelines specified as occurring within 1-5+ years.
Two key factors contribute to the variations in time frames between different cultures.
Simulated Scenarios
Firstly, our predictions result from regression analysis, wherein we simulate multiple future development scenarios for the culture, across different time frames.
We then present the scenario that returned the highest predicted accuracy.
And, it's worth noting that we strive for a minimum accuracy rate of 80.4% on our predictions!
Pace of Change & Velocity of Change
Secondly, the pace of cultural change influences the expected time frame for growth.
In mathematical terms, a higher velocity of change corresponds to a more immediate predicted time frame.
And a slower velocity of change leads to a more gradual predicted time frame.
In cultural terms, a high velocity of change indicates rapid solidification of ideas within the culture, while a low velocity of change suggests a slower spread of these ideas and meanings.
Each prediction comes with a few important metrics.
- The predicted future position of the maturity curve.
- The future predicted population size.
- The anticipated time frame.
- The level of volatility exhibited by the topic.
- If the topic is highly volatile, then the system may not deliver a prediction. You will see this from time to time.
- If the topic is somewhat volatile, you will still see a prediction but it's less certain.